How to trade Apple Inc. into earnings and going forward

The Start of a New Era

How to trade Apple Inc. into tomorrow's earnings

I have an interesting statistic that has me more confident than ever that earnings will be Apple Inc.'s nail in the coffin. This will shut the casket on longs for a while and have them questioning getting long such easy obvious names. People are skewed into optimism in $AAPL as it sits as one of those sure things. Well a time comes when it's no longer so obvious. But one must always strategize for a margin of safety, so $AAPL must be played in 3 tiers. 1^st tier short has been at $418 with the 2^nd tier being split in two. 1^st of that 2^nd tier was added short today at $426. It could also be used to instead to buy your first put option in $AAPL for a great percentage gain possibility if we do get a huge gap down in $AAPL post earnings which I expect. If we happen to gap up I also predict that it won't be more than $15 making it pointless to hold long options or common stock. At that point the descent will start. If we gap lower post earnings it will be over $25, $40, or $75. But in the end $AAPL will fall more than $75 from these levels.

Previous $AAPL related articles that I have written.

http://www.scribd.com/search-my-documents?query=$AAPL

http://www.scribd.com/search-my-documents?query=Apple

Those links each have about 6 articles in which Apple is the main subject or a side subject. In summary I believed $AAPL was a sell on October 14^th but didn't get bearish or think short until January of 2012. I believe $AAPL now has great risk/reward to the downside. Of course their will be bounces. But higher prices I have to doubt from here on forward.

How to play $GOOG going into tonight's earnings

$GOOG going down the TUBE

What I see is plenty, the time I have is limited. Google currently bought Motorola which was the stupidest acquisition to date although in the future it could prove supplementary but as of now it'll be more of a backdated loss. They basically have to grow Motorola enough to cover the operating expenses of doing this deal topped with the challenges going forward of maintaining it.

Google also trades at a premium to its market peers of large cap companies like $AAPL and $MSFT. In the 2 year bull run we've had from the 2009 lows has proven itself through earnings and net income. There was a magical trend that no one could have seen and that was the android market. Had it not been for such a market GOOG 's earnings would have been stagnant in relative terms to physical desktops and laptops.

The problem is people don't see the world in terms of stop, go and wait in terms of investing. They choose to ignore such easy investment decision making ideas for short term riches by over-leveraging and calling themselves pro traders. The game is funny from afar.

In my opinion the best way to play $GOOG going forward would be in a 3 tier basis as always. But this time instead of loading up your 1^st tier in $GOOG today, it would be smarter to buy half of your first tier in stock prior to earnings, and the other half of your first tier in put options. If Googles earnings gap the stock higher by $40 or $50 bucks then it would be prudent to load up your first tier and half of your 2^nd. This will give you a safety for margin if the move ends up ripping through all time highs which is where I would bet Late 2007 longs are salivating to sell which is where I would love to join them.

I'm sorry I couldn't get to all the reasons why $GOOG is headed lower over the medium term but time will reveal all. Good luck

This was written in an urgent manner, sorry for any errors.

A few predictions to make - F5 Networks, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Lulu Lemon & more

I have a couple more predictions to make

The future seems quite troubling to me. I continue to see a higher dollar $UUP , an $AAPL that will head lower from 10/14's parabolic 11 year generational top , a higher F5 Networks $FFIV , Lulu Lemon $LULU getting the 2008 $CROX treatment and a lower Chiptole Mexican Grill $CMG setting the precedence to tulip bulb trading restaurant stocks.

It's so obvious what the insider pool in Chipotle Mexican Grill $CMG is doing. They have managed to keep the stock at such lofty P/E levels that technical analysts everywhere are tempted to jump on the momentum train. But regardless of what happens, either this price move becomes its quadruple top defining chart pattern history and heading lower from here, or it gets a boost by momentum traders and then plunges as a result of earnings. Chipotle has to surprise by at least +25% on earnings to stand a chance at heading higher. Remember what happened in July when Chipotle missed earnings? This could be earnings suicide if your long. Even if you get one final move higher due to momentum prior to earnings, or a stagnant market with a sharp move higher as a result of earnings, Chiptole would be insanely overvalued and the greatest short risk/reward ratio would present itself.

The dollar $UUP has continued to move higher since I became bullish on the currency in late July early August. Because the Federal Reserve was reluctant to start QE3 I said that the dollar would get a short squeeze that could last a long while. At the same time Euro yields have surged higher which has made the dollar's safety and more attractive. Of course the masses know not what they are doing and will eventually get burnt but the trade continues to be higher and the eventual dollar collapse is also coming in the future. But for now stay long.

F5 Networks has a lot of factors that make me excited about this stocks future price. Characteristically its acting very reminiscent of an easy short term bottom. This stock is a magnet for hedge fund managers who speculate on the long side of this stock like clock work. I expect this pattern to repeat but this time they will be caught off guard and will have to buy it after hours which is when the easy money would be considered made from the long side. In either case a margin for safety is the way you must play this game of speculation. Buying $FFIV in 3 tiers has always been the safest way to make money in the stock market. 1^st tier prior to earnings and 2^nd tier post earnings if it gaps down. 3^rd tier would make this a long term holder and this price would be purchased 25% lower which would make it an absolute steal. Unless of course tomorrow we all face the element of some type of surprise which I highly doubt. Earnings are steady and the company is cheap historically.

$AAPL prediction and analysis was done here http://www.scribd.com/doc/78151786/Home-building-stock-Lennar-Apple-looks-like-Netflix-in-2004 $AAPL is the most overvalued its ever been on the most predictable basis. Again this would be treated in 3 tiers. This $420 area is ideal for tier 1 tier 2 would be post earnings if they surprise to the upside and 3^rd tier would be the long term hold for an eventual 50% collapse in $AAPL 's market cap post Q1 earnings.

Last but not least is the eventual outcome of Lulu Lemon Athletica $LULU. This companies business couldn't be anymore annoying to me than Crocs' was back in 2005- 2007. Both business models can be easily duplicated and sold for cheaper by any willing competitor. The fact that Lulu Lemon thinks that people won't shop elsewhere for yoga gear at half the price is the most hilarious part of their over priced ugly line of clothing. This stock is waiting to surprise investors cutting the stock in half overnight. This stock is extremely overvalued and selling at a premium. In the world of pricing things, I would sell this short here like a bandit at $61 per share.

PIMCO's Bill Gross The Bond Slave

PRESENTS...

A guide on how to go from a KING to a SLAVE in the 21^st century

Chapter 1: Invest for the long term

Chapter 2: Sell everyone on the idea of safe steady returns

Chapter 3: How to structure it like a ponzi scheme

Chapter 4: Never sell your bonds

Chapter 5: If the idea ever fails, just blame it on the government

Lets get something straight about this guy! He made $1.7 billion in 2008 after having large positions in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. But shouldn't he lost money being that those companies went bankrupt? EXACTLY! But instead he did what every other politician does when they need help. He lobbied Washington to bail him out and buy all the Fannie and Freddie mortgage paper off him. Can you Fucking believe it!? So lets think about this for a second. He begged, pleaded, and basically threatened the government to give him our tax payer money to bail out his bad bets and in the end he nets $1.7 billion. SOMETHING IS FUCKN WRONG! This guy stole our Fucking tax money and profited and still runs PIMCO, the worlds largest bond fund. But you know what BITCH! Life comes around in a full circle and “God” “Love” “Life” whatever the fuck you want to call it has a plan larger than any mans schemes. It's called natural order. And a man that needs saving once will need it again because he is not following natural order, but instead artificial support. GET IT!? Well if you don't then that's fine too.

But this is the situation now. Bill Gross has been losing his ass in Bonds these past 2 years. And to prove how poorly he's doing this year, this article (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/16/bill-gross-pimco-bad-year_n_1013954.html ) explains how he had sold his gigantic bond portfolio right before bonds had a monstrous rally this year not seen in very often. So basically Bill Gross as a bond fund manager was waiting his whole bond life for this trade and he missed it. Then as the bond market ignited because of fears of slower growth and a large move ensues, he jumps back on the bandwagon in somewhere near the top and writes an apology letter to his investors for missing the rally. So instead of admitting he missed the trade, he does exactly what every amateur trader does. HE CHASES. When I saw him on TV, I saw a gay little child that was not rationalizing why he made the trade but instead apologizing for doubting the US BOND MARKET. Watching it made me realize something. PIMCO is going to be the largest bond fund to ever collapse at the hand of the federal reserve. Whether that means it's done on purpose or by accident, someone has to be holding the BOND PAPER when everything goes down the shitter. Him and his cronies Mohamed El-Erian and Neil Kashkari are nothing but cunning idiots. They come off as soft spoken and intelligent but like non visionaries, don't know how to act on their information. They just repeat the analysis given to them by their overly-funded research team. Anyway, I'm not in the business of giving future SLAVES tips (since they're going to be broke anyway) but I figured I would give those reading something to ponder.

[But first let me redirect your attention to what our Central Banking system called the Federal Reserve has done to our purchasing power over the last 100 years. Every war we entered has been the direct ability of them to borrow printed money laundered by the Federal Reserve into the bond market.]

My fellow readers, once you understand that the Federal Reserve is owned by shareholders of banks JP MORGAN , WELLS FARGO , CITI, then you can understand that the game is rigged. It's a club. They play the game with our money and when they fail they just print more of it. They kick whoever they don't want out of the club or just change the name of the bank so they can keep disguising their scheme. Of course most of you will turn away from this truth and that's what makes you a good SLAVE. A SLAVE who doesn't know he's one is the best SLAVE. The slavery starts with control of the money which is actually control of our needs. This is why GOLD is the only honest money because it can't be manipulated. The game needs to start over and people must get back to producing. Since when was paper money worth anything? It is the product or commodity that is worth something. I feel like I'm in a bad dream where everyone has lost their minds. People are so fixated on the paper that they forget where it's value is really derived from. COMMODITIES! I'm the biggest bull in commodities and there is not a bond, stock, or fiat currency that has more value. Because in the end lets not forget where all these markets are really born from.

Now I'm interested in going back to what you may have come here for. Since information of sociopolitics doesn't interest you and making money is all you care about, even if you make money from this idea you are considered a poor man to me. Let me explain this trade and how I go about seeing things.

The US dollar and the bond market are really considered one in the same. Because fundamentally, our dollar and the bond market are both pieces of paper backed by our government. Instead of government and free markets being separate non -interested parties, they are actually in bed together. Well the day always comes where one becomes more important/independent than the other for a little short while before their relationship is realized (I wonder if that sounds familiar of the relationship you might have with your wife). Let me continue to explain my thesis. There is going to come a time when our bond market and our dollar will decouple. That means they will go in opposite directions (sounds like your relationship at one point doesn't it?). In my opinion this will happen because of the European debt crisis. People will question whether our bond market is even safe. In the interim people will scurry to the dollar in hurry. This may cause a further spike in the US dollar. But the US dollar's trade trigger will come from the Euro collapse, or revaluation. Whatever you want to call it. That will make our dollar a lot stronger than Bernanke wishes, which will prompt him to do QE3 but because the Euro is the second largest currency it will cause adverse affects on our Dollar. It could cause our dollar to rise in value further than any bear can imagine, and then before everyone jumps on the train like 2008, the dollar collapse will ensue. It could be fast or trending. But when our bond market sells off along with our market this could cause people to start begging the question what the dollar means. By then we may be talking about QE4 and a possible re-evaluation of the world's perception of a reserve currency being taken seriously. China's economy will be considered most stable and powerful therefore everyone will be rushing to be a buyer of their currency. China will be the ultimate winner as they will be able to buy everything the world has at much cheaper prices. Don't worry about their manufacturing. They have enough workers and factories to trade amongst themselves, while picking gold grapes off the world's cheap assets.

Without getting to far off topic let me say this. The bond market is about to turn down, and our dollar could rip higher. Look at every line on the chart as the time the two markets went in opposite directions. And then focus on the long term and see how overall they move in same direction of down. It's no coincidence that they move in tandem except for the recent run which is just a momentary perception change. You can call it a larger decoupling inside one large decline in both markets.

So now without FURTHER ADO.....

For charts and the rest of the article go to my scribd page here

http://www.scribd.com/doc/73267976/PIMCO-s-Bill-Gross-The-Bond-Slave 

Do you want to be ruled?

Do you really want to be ruled by a SELECT few??

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

[Stock Charts are attached...]

Well what did you think the result would be? Did you think that creating a centralized a government otherwise known as our Federal Government was a good idea? Giving power to a few men in Washington over an entire nation was never suppose to be it's purpose. But that is what happens when you give a few people too much power and responsibility. They abuse it. So how did the Federal Government's role of being an institution that was only suppose to ensure our liberty and freedom turn into one who that controls our laws above any state? If you look back to some history you'll see that states were suppose to be ultimately in control. ( http://www.policyalmanac.org/government/archive/constitution.shtml ) This would ensure variety and richness of opinion. So rich, that if one state's ideas became to communistic or anti-capitalist all the other states would act as a refuge.

But the problem is of the men we breed under our socialist educational system. It's the under-educated politicians that have more of a desire to be powerful than to be right that the problem arises. They are elected into office like it was a high school popularity contest and sign things into law out of ignorance. And the fact that we are taught that our past presidents were people who always did the right thing reflects our mirror of ignorance. But we were conned right? We voted for these idiots because they promised us things. They promised us security from outside threats and salvation from deep recessionary like depressions. They give us welfare, social security, medicare, the FDA , the FHA, the FDIC, and so many other organizations that promise us everything will be fine as long as the working class keeps paying into them.

We pay 30% of our income to the government currently. Think about this. Pretend we got rid of paper money and we went back to bartering goods. And lets say you farmed fish for a living and that was that way you bartered for other foods as a way to get the nutrition for you and your family. Well lets say you farmed 365 fish every year, 1 for every day. And every fish produced was important to your family businesses' future to maintain the ability to trade. Then comes along this central bodied government controlled by a few that is stationed thousands of miles away from your home that decides to put into law that they want 30% of the fish you farm a year. Now ask yourself, something. How comfortable would you feel giving your hard work away to some political mob who just run around creating laws and regulations around businesses while socializing programs that force you and every working American to pay into. Remember tax payers, we pay for people to live in section 8 housing and snort drugs all day. We also pay into a social security program that is structured exactly like a ponzi scheme. With a wide margin for error they make Bernie Madoff look like a mastermind. And now Obama wants to create a law that forces every human in America to buy Medical insurance or else? Or else what Obama?! If American presidents were allowed to run indefinitely we would be able to identify America's Hitler and put all the blame to one face. But America's politics are controlled by the ultra rich and they're cunning and robbing ways have succeeded once again in manipulating our system. Now they hide behind the faces that are known as our politicians and progressively fund anyone willing to take direct orders. And its quite clear how the rich begin to act when they become too wealthy. To find examples look no further than Warren Buffet and George Soros. Both endorse socialism even though both are direct benefactors of capitalism. Haven't we learned anything. Apparently not because most of today's voters this are still of a new generation. They didn't experience Germany, Russia, and China during communism. Our parents don't have stories to tell except to say “The good times, theyyyy arreee aaaaaa comin'!” Our grandparents were the ones who lived through the great depression so they learned to save, invest and work. That means they learned responsibility and sacrifice. Sacrifice of things both socially and materially. They learned to live under their means. Then came the baby boomers who were the most careless and gullible generation probably in history. Their gullibility is reflected by their willingness to allow the government to become the largest in history under their watch. Our government is currently the largest it has ever been with the most rapid expansion currently in history. Maybe part of the explanation was because the kids growing up behind their Depression aged parents were nothing but spoiled children coming from “OLD MONEY” , “TITANIC” money. REAL MONEY. WEALTH! The hard working American. The American that doesn't exist anymore.

Anyway here are some pictures of the Great Depression since we are all headed down this road whether we like it or not. The chances of it are 100%. Inflation will be the cause. Good luck to all! ,

[Stock Charts are attached...]

It's aaaaaaaaaaaaa COMIN' !

[Aghhh, Capitalism at it's finest. Those who were fortunate provided as much as they can to the needy. This is how capitalism use to operate. Today we might look towards the government to open these up for us, since the private sector is being robbed by our public government through excessive taxation and regulation anyway.]

[Hmmm... odd? It use to cost 25 cents to see a movie? What happened? Did the actors demand more money and that's why the price to watch of movie went up? Of course not. It was the direct result of excessive regulations and expenses over time by our governments. It's no secret and not complicated.]

[And this is history repeating itself wiping out 90% of the professionals on Wallstreet which will spawn a new age of gamblers. Old style smooth sailing trading era is over. We are in a land mine economy during a government bubble that's about to witness its own demise. Riots in Europe will look like an organized circus compared to America's. ]

annnnddd now, some Stock Charts for the Blind

[ http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/head-shoulders.asp#axzz1fDlx2dkq ] - Head and shoulders DEFINED

WEEKLY CHART of the S&P 500 v.s. The Japanese Yen

To see this CHART and more visit my scribd page http://www.scribd.com/doc/74346630/Do-you-want-to-be-ruled

The Amero-European Collapse and War with Iran

The Amero-European Collapse

and War with Iran

French President Sarkozy said today that Iran's Nuclear program is a serious and urgent threat. These comments couldn't have come at a more perfect time. America and Europe are tinkering on a GDP massive deflationary like depression. Without the ability to tap the bond market's for easy cheap money, Sarkozy is trying to push his agenda which is actually aligned with the US'. Let's not get it twisted. There is a reason why we were in Iraq all these years. They are the #9 largest producer of oil. We also saw an opportunity to go into Libya when they sit as the #13 largest oil producer. If you watch headlines lately, you'll notice the Obama corrupt agenda of pushing the story of Iran being a nuclear threat. Iran sits at #4 largest oil producer. Coincidence? Not at all! Pretend for a minute that the CIA was telling the truth when they say that they have proof of Iran's nuclear program. Well if that's the case why don't they allow us all to see. If you know their cards and want to call their bluff, then call the poker chips to the table. Stop playing kiddie rumor games just to feed us your war minded propaganda so the ultra rich can pay back their bad bets. Their all CRIMINALS and should not be trusted! Do your part and never send your son to serve in the army. It's the most anti-humanitarian thing you can ever do. I don't think people understand this simple fact. If they want us they can come attack us. Think about it! If you went attacking people around your neighborhood that you thought were going to be potential robbers of your home, you would be put in jail. No rational explanation to a judge would excuse you from going out and picking your battles. The battles must come to you and you must use the excuse of self defense. Apparently that doesn't seem like the problem when talking about war and killing people in other countries led by Barrack O'Hitler.

Here's the problem right now in the world. Europe and America are definitely very commingled in this whole European debt mess. For proof of this look at Alan Grayson's congressional question to Ben Bernanke ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0NYBTkE1yQ ) Does anyone even realize the criminality behind what Bernanke is doing? He is lending out $500,000,000,000 of our countries wealth to some financial institutions in Europe. Lets not forget that this was done back in 2008. Oops!!! Bernanke should just dress up as Steve Urkel from now on, because he's going to have to say “Did I dooooo thaaaat!?” a lot going forward. Ben Bernanke might be the stupidest economist next to all other ones that crowd CNBC's airwaves everyday from 6 am to 8 pm. For proof of Ben's Steve Urkel like track record here is a little collection of clips compiled together in one short sweet video. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QpD64GUoXw ) And remember what the crazy part is about this whole issue. THIS FUCKING MORON RUNS OUR MONETARY SYSTEM. DO YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT THAT FUCKING MEANS. THAT HE DOESN'T UNDERSTAND SHIT!

Let's focus on Europe again for a second. Europe's GDP numbers were a farce this whole time. They're system was only being kept afloat by stealing from the private sector via bank loans. The system was socialized, and like history dictates, socialism never works. Communism never works. And every other form of -ism aside from Capitalism has never worked. It’s allowed us freedom with a sense of responsibility. And when the responsibility is concentrated and given to an anti-producing majority (government workers) the system will eventually fail because of its narrowing and limited ability to produce and maintain its own existence without taking from those who actually work and trade goods. You can only take so much from a system that is working. Capitalism works because it entices people to want to participate in the game of buying goods that appeal to them. Any other form of -ism just looks to take away from that system. Because let's not forget that in reality we are all just really bartering goods that we've allowed paper to represent us and the exchange of such goods. And because the system has become so vast, global and complex we can forget that sometimes. That's why gold is the best investment aside from commodities, both durable and non-durable. In the end these are the things people will once again chase en masse.

But every flawed system must come to an end as they all do. There is not a fine line between being wrong and right. There is no line at all actually. Ignorance clouds our politicians here and abroad. They don't understand the meaning of no more donations and free rides. You see everyone, you only have two life lines in economics. This isn't “Who wants to be a Millionaire.” The first one you can use from somewhere usually called your savings, and the other happens when you need to ask someone to lend you money, most times referred to as credit. Europe has none of those options left. Kind of like the United States instead we have a central bank who just openly robs the American people while Europe has a system created out of dumb luck (because I doubt they would have implemented such a system knowing what they know now) that actually does them a favor by forcing monetary discipline. Unless of course, one nation (Germany) decides to invest in the PIIGS fiscally retarded socialist system. If they don't then that will be a great thing for mankind. It will then be at that moment that Germany stops giving its undisciplined children free money and teaches them responsibility and hard work. That will then force the PIIGS to change their socialistic stance not by decision but by force. Sometimes children need such things as many parents might agree :) And , as for the US, well your day is coming too. Not only in the bond market but in the commodities market. I feel sorry for all the suckers following BILL GROSS into this bond trade. Even if he outpaces returns in all other assets for the next year or two , it won't save him for an eventual run on our bond market within the next 5 years at the most. It can happen sooner and I would not go invested another day in this money market universe without some type of short on our illusionary bond market built on a house of cards.

Characteristic of a Bank Run

Bank of America

2007-2008

2011

and again.....

for a Market Observation minute

S&P 500

2000-2001

                                                          For this chart and rest of article visit link http://www.scribd.com/doc/73761774/The-Characteristic-of-a-bank-run